In the January-June period this year, China's finished steel exports amounted to 58.147 million mt, up 9.2% year on year, according to the latest data released by China's General Administration of Customs (GACC). If the current monthly export volumes continue until the end of the year, total finished steel exports from China in 2025 may reach as high as 116 million mt, exceeding expectations, which were for around 100 million mt in late 2024. In the given period, China's finished steel imports amounted to 3.023 million mt, down 16.4% year on year But increasing protectionism globally may hit Chinese steel exports in the second half of the year, while the size of any decrease will depend highly on the situation in the domestic market and on production cuts. In June, China's finished steel exports totaled 9.678 million metric tons, down 8.5% month on month, while up 10.7% year on year. In the same month, China's finished steel imports totaled 470,000 metric tons, down 2.3% month on month, while down 17.5% year on year Since July 7, Vietnam has imposed anti-dumping tariffs on ex-China HRC, with the rate ranging from 23.1% to 27.83%, effective for five years. Last week, Vietnam and the United States reached a tariff agreement, including a 40% tariff on re-exports. The two moves announced by Vietnam will hit China's steel exports hard, both directly and indirectly, as Vietnam is not only China's largest direct market for steel but also the biggest indirect exporter of its steel products Due to slack demand in the traditional off-season, rebar and HRC in the Chinese domestic market have come under strong pressure from increasing inventories, which will reduce steelmakers' profitability, likely negatively affecting production activities. Steelmakers will implement maintenance works at blast furnaces against the backdrop of environmental production restrictions and the official parade in September.
